Ww3?
#31
07-24-2006, 07:32 AM
The US isnt pulling troops out, they are pulling out American families living in Lebanon.
Here is what I wrote in my myspace about this:
And here is a little background for those of you who are wondering about where the hell this all came from:
Class Dismissed.
Here is what I wrote in my myspace about this:
Originally Posted by Shambles' Myspace
Personally, im not too sure what to think of the current crisis on Israel, and what side I am even on. I'm a little more concerned of the ramifications of the current conflict and how it will end up dictating the middle east's political climate for years to come.
These attacks by Israel and Hezbolah are going to move the peace process backwards a few years, and there is no doubt about that. However, sadly, nothing is as it seems. Hezbolah is controlled by Syria and, more importantly, Iran. This extremist group is one of many Islamic extremist groups in the region, but it's significance is more than just that of being a terrorist group. Oddly enough, they have their power because of the struggle in the area for the Middle East Democracies. Lebanon recently had Democratic elections, as did Iran, and Hezbolah was able to get a seat in the government. They are now able to help dictate the policies of the government to push their own agenda, that of removing the Israli state. Personally, I believe that the push for such democracies in the area isn't what the area needs, for the corruption in the government's and in the elections, as well as the turmoil in the area, seems to be shooting the whole idea in the foot. What would work well in the area? You've got me. With the current climate in the area, im not too sure what would work.
What is a little more concerning in this entire conflict is not the fact that the peace process has completely stalled out, but that Iran and Syria are able to now push for what they wanted, the removal of the Israli state by force. Iran especially is in a state where they are wanting to create as much havok as possible, not beacuse the people want it, but because their leader wants it. Unfortunately, it almost seems that the worst case scenerio is unfolding, and nobody can do anything to stop it. The powerhouse that is Iran can make some sweeping changes in the area, and with the US in Iraq, it puts our troops in danger for just about any diplomatic move that we make. There has already been a missle fired into Israel that was produced by Iran, so there is no doubt that there is an influence by the extremist states in the region on the conflict.
But what does this mean for the US and its troops? Well, unfortunately, its hard to say. The entire international community is in a quagmire of sorts. The community is correct that Israel does have the right to defend itself. They are also correct in denouncing Hezbolah because of their capture and murder of Israli soldiers (they did cross the border of Israel to capture them). However, with Israel's very forceful bombing of Lebanese targets, it almost seems like overkill. A diplomatic resolution will probably not be able to come out of this since both sides seemingly do not want it, even though they say they do. The Lebanese government want Israel to stop bombarding so that they can get the captured men back, and Israel wants the troops back, and then they will stop the bombing. Who is right in this situation? The US can't put full support w/ Israel on this because of the fact that it puts the troops in Iraq in danger of a huge backlash by the insurgency in that area. The insurgency could easily gain momentum and make times even tougher for the troops. Most of the extremist Arab world wants Israel destroyed, and if we decide to back Israel 100% we might end up shooting ourselves in the foot for the progress, if any, we have made in Iraq.
On the flipside of this, we can hardly back Hezbolah or Lebanon. We can ask for a stop to the shelling, and denounce Israel for its almost overkill approach in its tactics, but if we decide to back Lebanon, then we are almost backing Hezbolah and its capture of the Israli troops (at least, thats how I see it). If the Lebanese government wants to save their people, THEY need to step up and get those Israli troops to safety on their time, and not let a faction like Hezbolah completely dictate how their countries youth feel. The long term ramifications of this are that the youth in Lebanon might end up backing a group such as Hezbolah, giving them more propaganda to use and more people to arm for a possible large-scale attack.
So whats the worst case scenerio? Well, unfortunately, its seemingly unfolding right now. Iran and Syria are both going to be in this conflict one way or another. This means a large step upwards in the intensity of attacks. What concerns me the most, however, is that Saddam, over the course of 10+ years, has moved his chemical weapons stockpiles into Syria of all places. If Syria is attacked by Israel, who is to say that a possible strike by Syria might come into play, and a nerve agent launched into the game. This concerns me currently, and I have a funny feeling that with the way things are going, it very well could take place. Iran can also provide some of these weapons, and with their proximity to Iraq, who knows what might happen there. They also have the long-range missle capibilities, so they can basically be a factor from where they reside.
All in all, I don't see a quick resolution to this conflict. In fact, I can only see it growing in intensity and size. I dont think that the retrevial of the Israli soldiers will stop what has begun and in fact, I think this entire conflict has finally hit that powder keg that everyone has been wanting to avoid hitting. Time will only tell what will happen, and im hoping that someone can extinguish this wildfire of extremism and violence before it envelopes the entire region.
These attacks by Israel and Hezbolah are going to move the peace process backwards a few years, and there is no doubt about that. However, sadly, nothing is as it seems. Hezbolah is controlled by Syria and, more importantly, Iran. This extremist group is one of many Islamic extremist groups in the region, but it's significance is more than just that of being a terrorist group. Oddly enough, they have their power because of the struggle in the area for the Middle East Democracies. Lebanon recently had Democratic elections, as did Iran, and Hezbolah was able to get a seat in the government. They are now able to help dictate the policies of the government to push their own agenda, that of removing the Israli state. Personally, I believe that the push for such democracies in the area isn't what the area needs, for the corruption in the government's and in the elections, as well as the turmoil in the area, seems to be shooting the whole idea in the foot. What would work well in the area? You've got me. With the current climate in the area, im not too sure what would work.
What is a little more concerning in this entire conflict is not the fact that the peace process has completely stalled out, but that Iran and Syria are able to now push for what they wanted, the removal of the Israli state by force. Iran especially is in a state where they are wanting to create as much havok as possible, not beacuse the people want it, but because their leader wants it. Unfortunately, it almost seems that the worst case scenerio is unfolding, and nobody can do anything to stop it. The powerhouse that is Iran can make some sweeping changes in the area, and with the US in Iraq, it puts our troops in danger for just about any diplomatic move that we make. There has already been a missle fired into Israel that was produced by Iran, so there is no doubt that there is an influence by the extremist states in the region on the conflict.
But what does this mean for the US and its troops? Well, unfortunately, its hard to say. The entire international community is in a quagmire of sorts. The community is correct that Israel does have the right to defend itself. They are also correct in denouncing Hezbolah because of their capture and murder of Israli soldiers (they did cross the border of Israel to capture them). However, with Israel's very forceful bombing of Lebanese targets, it almost seems like overkill. A diplomatic resolution will probably not be able to come out of this since both sides seemingly do not want it, even though they say they do. The Lebanese government want Israel to stop bombarding so that they can get the captured men back, and Israel wants the troops back, and then they will stop the bombing. Who is right in this situation? The US can't put full support w/ Israel on this because of the fact that it puts the troops in Iraq in danger of a huge backlash by the insurgency in that area. The insurgency could easily gain momentum and make times even tougher for the troops. Most of the extremist Arab world wants Israel destroyed, and if we decide to back Israel 100% we might end up shooting ourselves in the foot for the progress, if any, we have made in Iraq.
On the flipside of this, we can hardly back Hezbolah or Lebanon. We can ask for a stop to the shelling, and denounce Israel for its almost overkill approach in its tactics, but if we decide to back Lebanon, then we are almost backing Hezbolah and its capture of the Israli troops (at least, thats how I see it). If the Lebanese government wants to save their people, THEY need to step up and get those Israli troops to safety on their time, and not let a faction like Hezbolah completely dictate how their countries youth feel. The long term ramifications of this are that the youth in Lebanon might end up backing a group such as Hezbolah, giving them more propaganda to use and more people to arm for a possible large-scale attack.
So whats the worst case scenerio? Well, unfortunately, its seemingly unfolding right now. Iran and Syria are both going to be in this conflict one way or another. This means a large step upwards in the intensity of attacks. What concerns me the most, however, is that Saddam, over the course of 10+ years, has moved his chemical weapons stockpiles into Syria of all places. If Syria is attacked by Israel, who is to say that a possible strike by Syria might come into play, and a nerve agent launched into the game. This concerns me currently, and I have a funny feeling that with the way things are going, it very well could take place. Iran can also provide some of these weapons, and with their proximity to Iraq, who knows what might happen there. They also have the long-range missle capibilities, so they can basically be a factor from where they reside.
All in all, I don't see a quick resolution to this conflict. In fact, I can only see it growing in intensity and size. I dont think that the retrevial of the Israli soldiers will stop what has begun and in fact, I think this entire conflict has finally hit that powder keg that everyone has been wanting to avoid hitting. Time will only tell what will happen, and im hoping that someone can extinguish this wildfire of extremism and violence before it envelopes the entire region.
Originally Posted by Shambles' Myspace
The creation of the Israli state post WWII is where this all started, but im referring to the current conflict between Israel and Lebanon.
Lebanon is basically controlled by Syria and Iran through Hezbollah. However, post-Lebanese civil war, Lebanon had the chance to disarm Hezbollah, but couldnt because of Hezbollah's might. All other militias were disarmed, but not Hezbollah. Couple to that the seemingly imminent failure of any democracy in the Middle East and you have a superpower that stretches throughout the region. Two democratically elected nations (Iran and Lebanon) have had their governments taken over by radical Islamic fundamentalists.
What makes this even worse is the appeal of Hezbollah to the youth of the nation. You join the cause, you are basically made for life. No need to worry about your needs.
This current military escallation, however, is directly caused by both Israel and Hezbollah, and if Hezbollah was disarmed, im sure you would see a decrease in their presence in Lebanon.
Lebanon is basically controlled by Syria and Iran through Hezbollah. However, post-Lebanese civil war, Lebanon had the chance to disarm Hezbollah, but couldnt because of Hezbollah's might. All other militias were disarmed, but not Hezbollah. Couple to that the seemingly imminent failure of any democracy in the Middle East and you have a superpower that stretches throughout the region. Two democratically elected nations (Iran and Lebanon) have had their governments taken over by radical Islamic fundamentalists.
What makes this even worse is the appeal of Hezbollah to the youth of the nation. You join the cause, you are basically made for life. No need to worry about your needs.
This current military escallation, however, is directly caused by both Israel and Hezbollah, and if Hezbollah was disarmed, im sure you would see a decrease in their presence in Lebanon.
#32
07-26-2006, 12:02 AM
Yeah this is nothing but trouble. Hopefully we don't have another war. I am by no means a super religious guy or anything, but check out the last chapter in the bible. Everything in it is happening right now, especially with the war overseas. I wouldn't be suprised if the world were to end soon. It really is a scary thought.
