ESPN has a bracket where you pick your own 16 teams, and then it is simulated. Have no idea where they get the simulation numbers from, but it doesn't seem too far off. Only weird game was VT vs USC...the computer put out 68 % for USC and 32 % for VT.. but VT still won. So I'm not sure what they're doing to calculate. But here's the link:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/bowls07/bracket